人为和自然因素影响使湿地景观破碎，面积萎缩，水分供给不足，湿地稳定受到威胁。湿地的生态脆弱性及动态变化性导致保护措施滞后，生态系统稳定评价及预警研究亟待进行。双台河口湿地是辽河入渤海的最后屏障，对净化渤海入流水质意义重大。本研究拟利用arcGIS软件以该湿地15年遥感影像为基础分析湿地景观变化，利用灰色关联分析筛选湿地稳定性评价指标体系，采用归一化植被指数（NDVI）计算生物量，基于能量平衡系统模型（SEBS）确定生态稳定需水阈值，基于结构模型评价湿地土壤环境容量。以课题组长期定位研究数据构建基础数据库，建立生物、水分及土壤子系统动态模型，分别界定合理阈值；基于系统动力学流率基本入树建模法建立稳定性预测模型；利用计算机语言实现湿地生态系统动态仿真。研究拟在生态学理念指导下，对湿地生态系统稳定进行定量评价，对其发展趋势作科学预警。成果可丰富湿地生态系统稳定理论，为湿地管理提供科学依据。

Artificial and natural factors break the wetlands’ landscape and shrink its area, meanwhile, the shortage of water supplement imperil the stabilization of wetlands. The protective measures are backward because of the fragility and diversification of wetlands ecosystems. Researches about stability evaluation and warning of ecosystems are highly required. Shuangtai estuary wetland has important effects on improving water quality of flow into the Bohai sea, which is the last barrier of Liao River which flows into the Bohai sea. This research establish a model of landscape safety situation by analyzing remote sensing images of this wetland among 15 years by using arcGIS. The biomass of pants calculated by normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The ecological stability water requiremental threshold determined by the model of energy balance(SEBS). The evaluation of wetland soil environmental capacity based on structural model. And build a basic database by using longterm localization data, build creature, water and soil subsystem model and set reasonable threshold. At the same time, fitting all models and indices, building up stable prediction model which is based on system dynamics rate variable fundamental intree model, and using computer language to achieve the dynamic simulation of wetland ecosystem. Under the guidance of ecology theoretics, this research make the quantitative evaluation of the stability of wetland ecosystem, and make scientific prediction to its trend of development. The research production can consummate ecosystem stability theory, meanwhile, providing scientific basis for management of wetland.