中文摘要
森林结构决定森林的功能,森林结构优化面临着全球气候变化影响的挑战。研究未来气候变化背景下森林结构的动态变化规律,构建包含气候环境影响因子的森林结构优化模型已成为森林经营的重要内容。项目拟以阔叶混交林为对象,通过森林结构指标解析,从空间结构和非空间结构两方面建立和完善森林结构量化指标体系;基于固定样地数据、区域气象数据、土壤及地形数据,应用非线性混合效应模型法建立气候变化模式下的森林生长收获预估模型和树种多样性模型。在此基础上,针对气候变化的时间和季节性以及环境因子变化的动态性,建立基于生长收获预估模型和树种多样性模型的森林结构动态多目标优化模型,并应用群智能算法求解模型。根据模型模拟和预测未来3种气候变化模式下的森林结构变化及其对功能的响应,提出应对气候变化的阔叶混交林结构优化方案。研究结果将深入了解未来气候变化背景下森林结构变化规律,为应对未来气候变化的森林经营决策提供理论依据。
英文摘要
The function of the forest depend on the forest structure. The optimazation of the forest structure is facing the challenge of global climation change. It has become an important part of the forest management that the research on the dynamic changes in the forest structure under the climate change in the future and the establishment of the forest structure optimazition model with climate and evironment factots. Using broad-leaved mixed forests as an example and analysing the indexes for forest structures,the study will estabish and improve the quantitative index system of forest structure from spatial structure and non spatial structure. Then based on the data of fixed sample and the data of the regional meteorological, soil and terrain, this research will establish the forest harvest forecast model and the tree species diversity model under the climate change mode by applying the method of nonlinear mixed effect model. On this basis, aiming at the timeliness and seasonal on climate change and the dynamics on environmental factors change, forest structure dynamic multi-objective optimization model will be set up based on the forest harvest forecast model and the tree species diversity model. And this model can be solved by swarm intelligence algorithm. The changes of the forest structure and its response to the climate change for the broad-leaved mixed forests under three patterns of climate change in the furture have been simulated and predicted using the forest structure multi-objective dynamic optimazation models. The structure optimization schemes are proposed for broad-leaved mixed forests for responding to the climate change. The results given in this study would be useful for understanding the change pattern of the forest strucutre unden the siduation of climate change in the future, and also as an important theoretical basis for making decision in forest management.
