我国儿童哮喘快速增长，每十年翻一番，完全控制率低仅3%，严重威胁我国人群健康。作为可控性疾病，早期预测、预防哮喘的发生、发作是降低哮喘危害的根本方法。目前国际上缺乏早期预测哮喘的可靠模型，已有证据多来自西方发达国家人群，不完全适用于中国人群。本项目以已建立的前瞻性大型出生队列为基础，描述我国哮喘的长期变化趋势，利用复杂的大数据和统计模型，分析环境、遗传、行为、心理、社会、气象、气候等危险因素及特殊暴露对哮喘发病、发作、转归的单独和联合作用；在前期基础上筛选和验证中国人群哮喘的遗传易感位点；探讨多基因多态性与哮喘的关联，分析遗传与环境因素复杂的交互作用对哮喘发生的作用，尝试构建和评价适用于中国人群的哮喘发病、发作、转归的风险预测模型，并进行卫生经济学评估，预测未来我国哮喘疾病负担和社会经济负担。本项目将为制定我国哮喘防治对策、更新哮喘防治指南、更有效的识别高危人群提供中国人群高质量的证据。

The prevalence of childhood asthma has been increasing rapidly in China, doubled every 10 years. The rate of total control, on the other hand, is only 3%. Such a combination seriously affects the population health. As a controllable disease, early prediction and early prevention of asthmatic occurrence and recurrence are the key approach to minimize the adverse impact of the disease. Currently no asthma prediction model with good reliability is available. Even the limited evidence often comes from developed countries, which may not be applicable to the Chinese population. The project will use data from established prospective birth cohort studies to predict the trend of asthma prevalence in China. We will use complex longitudinal data with sophisticated statistical models to examine how environment, genetics, behavior, psychology, society, climate and meteorology, etc. may affect the occurrence, recurrence and prognosis of childhood asthma individually and synergistically. Built upon our previous work of screening and validation of susceptible gene loci in the Chinese population, we will explore the effects of genetic polymorphisms and gene x environment interaction on asthma occurrence and recurrence. All these analyses will contribute to the prediction models for asthma occurrence, recurrence and prognosis. Health economic evaluation as well as prediction of disease and socioeconomic burden in China will be performed. Our prediction models will provide evidence to identify high risk population, establish new guidelines for asthma prevention, and help to set and implement health policies on asthma.