温度变率是决定水稻产量重要因素，特别是开花期高温事件对水稻产量形成具有重要影响。项目基于试验数据，建立不同高温发生时段和持续时间高温模式对不同温度敏感性水稻颖花败育影响过程的定量模型, 并耦合CERES-Rice作物模型，模拟高温对水稻产量影响。通过水稻抽穗开花期红外辐射温度控制试验、人工气候箱温度试验和不同播期田间试验，选用耐热性和敏感性基因型水稻为供试品种，在水稻抽穗开花前和开花后设置不同温度处理；基于水稻生长发育的生物学特征观测数据，分析水稻抽穗开花期不同温度处理下开花持续时间、逐日开花和授粉变化特征及水稻颖花发育动态变化规律，建立不同高温模式下影响水稻颖花败育关键温度和临界温度的参数化方程,构建高温影响水稻产量形成模型并耦合CERES-Rice模型，用历史高温年农气站天气数据和水稻产量构成要素观测数据及独立分期播种数据检验耦合模型模拟精度，提高模型对温度变率影响水稻产量的模拟精度。

Temperature variability is one of an important determinant factor of the rice yields, particularly when high temperature episodes during flowering duration of rice. The aims of this project is to establish a quantitative model for the effects of high temperature stressing on rice yield formation, and couple with the CERES rice growth model based on observed control experiments data, and simulate the effect of high temperature rice yields. Firstly, the experiments of the different temperature treatments effecting on heat tolerant and sensitive rice genotypes are conducted using the infrared radiation temperature control experiment, artificial climate chamber temperature experiments，and field experiments from different sowing date. Based on the biological characteristics of rice growth observational data, flowering duration，the daily fraction of flowering, pollination, floret fraction of flowering and pollination change at different temperatures are analyzed. The parameter equations of critical temperature and upper limited temperature with the time of high temperature occurrence and duration are defined. The model of high temperature stressing on yields formation are established, which are integrated with CERES-Rice growth model. Revised daily change rate of harvest index and connect to CERES-Rice model, by using with weather data of historical high temperature record and observed rice yield components data in agro-meteorological station, and with independent sowing data to examine the simulation of accuracy of coupled model, and improve the simulating ability of model which using to study on the effects of temperature variability on rice yield.